Download CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK by Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther PDF
By Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther
Based at the examine that has been carried out at Wharton danger administration Center over the earlier 5 years on catastrophic risk.
Covers a scorching subject within the gentle of contemporary terroristic actions and nature catastrophes.
Develops danger administration thoughts for lowering and spreading the losses from destiny disasters.
Provides thesaurus of definitions and phrases used during the book.
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Extra info for CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK
Example text
4 and examine the probability that losses exceed certain amounts. 0%. If the acceptable risk level, then the insurer can either decrease the amount of coverage, raise the premium and/or transfer some of the risk to others. 9 depicts a framework for integrating risk assessment with risk management and serves as a guide to the concepts and analyses presented in this book. The risk is first assessed through catastrophe modeling. Catastrophe modeling combines the four components (hazard, inventory, vulnerability, and loss) to aid insurers in making their decisions on what type of protection they can offer against a particular risk.
The key link between assessing risk via catastrophe models and implementing risk management strategies is the stakeholders’ decision processes. The types of information stakeholders collect and the nature of their decision processes are essential in developing risk management strategies. With respect to insurers, catastrophe models are the primary sources of information on the risk. Their decision rule for developing risk management strategies is to maximize expected profits subject to meeting the survival constraint.
5 enables an insurer to determine his PML or Probable Maximum Loss for a portfolio of structures in a given time period. The term PML is a subjective risk metric and is associated with a given probability of exceedance specified by the insurer. 4% probability of exceedance. The insurer can use the EP curve to determine how large a loss will occur at this probability level. Often, PML limits are framed in terms of a return period. The return period is simply the inverse of the annual probability of exceedance.